报告题目：The Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in 2021: Inconsistency in Key Studies

报 告 人：香港理工大学  何岱海教授

报告时间：2024年6月19日下午2:30-3:10

报告地点：数学楼306

摘  要： In this work, we revisited the evaluation of the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in 2021, as measured by the number of deaths averted. The published estimates differ a lot: from one widely referenced paper by Watson et al. (2022) estimating 0.5-0.6% of the USA population being saved, to average-level estimates of 0.15-0.2%, and to some estimates as low as 0.0022%. For other countries, Watson et al. gave much higher estimates than all other works too.

  In our view, in order to be considered reliable, mathematical models should be tested on more detailed real data that was not used in model fitting. On the other hand, detailed data bring about new challenges in statistical modelling and uncertainties in data reliability.

报告人简介：

何岱海，香港理工大学应用数学系教授。西安交通大学工学博士(1999)和加拿大麦克马斯特大学数学博士(2006)。曾在北京师范大学、密歇根大学和以色列特拉维夫大学做博士后。主要研究兴趣是传染病建模和医疗数据统计分析。在PNAS、Science Advances、Annals of Internal Medicine、European Respiratory Journal、Journal of the Royal Society Interface等期刊发表论文140余篇。Google H-index 44. 连续两年入选斯坦福大学发布的全球2%顶尖科学家榜单(2021-2023)。